Your expert in all things ratings. :)
@SilverSurfer Ratings always go down, it's just a fact of TV life. That's why I only compare shows in the same network to each other, not to the competition. (I don't list the Top 25 shows overall for example, its meaningless.) The general rule of thumb still applies: If a program rates at or higher than the network average, it will be renewed. Depending on how far below that average a program is, determines how likely it is to be canceled. If a network average is 1.2 and your show is drawing a 0.7, there aren't enough overseas or Netflix deals in the world that are going to save it. Unless the show has managed to survive for three seasons, then a season four is practically guaranteed for syndication deals. Blindspot is a great example of this, it's in season three now, its ratings are woeful, but it will get renewed in order to pump up the episode count to sell the syndication rights off to cable.
Kevin (Probably) Saves The World is most likely canceled. It just never gained much of an audience. Arrow is probably safe for another year, CW needs to fill Sunday night and for The CW, the ratings haven't been bad, Riverdale got renewed with an average 0.3 I think. Designated Survivor could go either way. It will depend on how secure ABC feels with their pilots. And they have already canceled Once Upon A Time, SHIELD is probably gone as well, so there could be room in the schedule.
@SilverSurfer Reality is they have no clue how they plan to do any of this. :) It's all pie-in-the-sky at the moment. Something that was mentioned at the FOX announcement:
Mr. Marchese’s 2020 goal was part of his closing remarks. “It was sort of an aspiration or goal. Not a declaration,” said one ad buyer who attended the event. “His whole closing section was about the value of the commercial and if they can provide more value by limiting commercials and creating new commercialization it will be better for networks’ health and better for advertisers.”
So there's another little nugget in there similar to the NBC "other elements" namely "new commercialization" that's usually code for some sort of on screen advertising. ;)
@SilverSurfer the additional production costs are not something they've thought of to be honest. That will all be affected by union contracts, too. With that said, top and bottom of the hour scheduling is, I think, too ingrained in the US at this point to change that either. The ad chiefs selling this are selling it as more content, not that you will have the same 41-43 minute episode stretched over an even longer timeframe.
As for UK programming, there's two different things in play. ITV for example is ad-revenue based, just like US networks, so ads are already built in to the episode length. As for the BBC, they are a little more fluid in the lengths of episodes and the extra 10-15 minutes left are used for mini nuggets of info or schedule announcements. (TonyMayhew feel free to correct me!)